In the ever-evolving field of weather forecasting, one aspect remains constant: uncertainty. Matt Stein, CEO, in his recent TEDx talk [link], sheds light on the genesis of an idea that will revolutionize our understanding of long-range weather forecasting.

A Journey Through the Texas Freeze

Matt begins his talk by recounting a personal experience that set the stage for his journey into the weather prediction space. In 2021, while driving across the U.S., he found himself unexpectedly snowbound in Nashville, Tennessee, due to the Texas Freeze. This storm was the coldest winter event Texas had experienced in decades, leaving millions without power and water. But what made this event particularly striking for Matt was the conversation he had during the storm with Dr. Ray Schmitt, a seasoned oceanographer. Ray and his team had predicted the Texas Freeze weeks before local forecasters.

The conversation left Matt wondering: “How might things have played out differently for those affected by the storm with an extra week of preparation?”

The Oceans: A Treasure Trove of Data

Traditional weather forecasts rely heavily on atmospheric data, which becomes increasingly unreliable beyond one week. As we look further ahead, the oceans and land become more predictive. 'The relationship between atmosphere, land, and the ocean is complex. This is where artificial intelligence can bridge the gap and, ultimately, help reliably and accurately forecast weather further into the future' (Matt Stein, TedXPortsmouth).

Why S2S Forecasting Matters

The importance of subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) forecasting extends to energy markets, agriculture, water management, and more. During the Texas Freeze, for example, energy traders who understood S2S forecasts were able to anticipate the crisis, while others were caught off guard. Similarly, farmers in regions like Kenya rely on accurate long-range forecasts to make critical decisions about planting and harvesting, which can mean the difference between a bountiful harvest and a devastating loss.

Decision Making

The steady rise in temperatures over the last few years has left even the most experienced decision-makers scratching their heads. You can no longer assume that the past is going to repeat itself, and while Salient’s 'methods outperform historical averages in accuracy and confidence by more than 30%' (Matt Stein, TedXPortsmouth), decision-makers still face a lot of risk. 'For example, if weeks before the Texas Freeze, you knew there was a 65% chance of extreme cold that could knock out infrastructure, that still means there is a 35% chance of normal temperatures. And while 65/35 is much better odds than flipping a coin, it still leaves room for uncertainty' (Matt Stein, TedXPortsmouth). Salient’s recognizes that as our ability to forecast further advances, so too must our ability to make better decisions in an increasingly uncertain climate. Salient is improving the reliability of forecasts with a data-driven approach (and a pinch of ocean salt). 

Salient’s Approach

Salient is committed to pushing the boundaries of what’s possible in weather forecasting. Matt’s insights remind us that with the right data and tools, we can turn uncertainty into opportunity and create a future where we are not just reacting to the weather, but proactively preparing for it.

Matt was one of 12 speakers at the Portsmouth TEDx event on May 10th, 2024. Watch the full talk [here]. Learn more about the event [here].