Salient's 2023-24 Ski-cast experiment confirmed two things:

• Season-ahead forecasts can drive real decisions, whether you're trading commodities or planning powder days.
• The Venn diagram of weather nerds and ski enthusiasts is basically a circle.

Let's do this again for the 2024-25 season:

• Compared to the last 15 years, conditions will generally be warmer and drier this season. Most mountains may see ~80% of their historical snow accumulation.
• Japan's season is forecast to resemble the last 15 years with about-normal precipitation and temperature. This produces snow that is in-line with historical averages, which is better than most options. (Select Alps and New England mountains show the same pattern.)
• The Pacific Northwest has the largest error bars. Since temperatures there can hover around freezing, a slightly warmer season can have a large influence on whether precipitation falls as rain or snow.
• Most Rockies resorts may lose some snow due to the dry season, but their baseline cold is reliable enough to be unaffected by the temperature bump.

Analysis notes:

• This snow prediction is relative for each mountain: the prediction is an untrended anomaly compared to the last 15 years at that particular location.  If Sugarbush (VT) scores high, that means it's a good year for Sugarbush.
• This analysis only includes the snowiest half of the 92-resort IKON/epic resort list.  If you don't see your favorite mountain here it's likely because it's a duplicate to a nearby location (like the Aspen family) or that it's in the lower half of the snow list (like many Midwestern locations).
• The Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) anomaly is calculated for the core ski season that begins on the 21 Dec (Winter solstice) and ends on 20 March (the Vernal equinox). The simulation begins on 1 October to account for preseason accumulation. The simulation ends on 30 April to capture the Spring ski season.
• The simulation considers only natural snowfall, and does not incorporate artificial snow making.
• Forecast generated on 1 December, with 101 simulations per location.

The (Relatively) Gnarliest Standouts

• RED and Eldora saw early-season powder dumps before the December 1 forecast date. Even if their later precipitation underperforms historical averages, the early snow advantage locks in a solid base for the rest of the season.
• Attitash (and Loon) buck the dry/warm trend with precipitation and temperature forecasts that are near to the normal range. This drives a seasonal snow forecast also close to historical averages.‍
• Hakuba and Kitzbühel are both forecast to have a drier-than-average season, but this is offset by early cold. The result is a slightly better than average primary season. Note Kitzbühel's possible Spring rally, if you're considering late season laps.

Wild Cards and Noteworthy Cases

• Aspen displays a typical Rockies pattern: relatively little but consistent precipitation, and cold enough temperatures to capture and retain all of it as snow.  The Rockies are a safe bet for predictable snowpack.
• Zermatt saw unusually warm temperatures in the pre-season, which made it hard to develop a good base. Even a thin year in the Alps is better than a good year elsewhere; in absolute terms Zermatt should still be better than most alternatives.‍
• Whistler exemplifies the extreme variability of the Cascades. Total precipitation over winter could vary by a factor of 2, and temperatures that cycle around freezing could deposit either rain or snow which adds to variability. Total snow water equivalent at season-end could range from 600-1400mm!

Ready to Put Our Forecast to Work?

Whether you're a powder hound planning your next Japan trip or a business leader looking to get ahead of winter's impact, Salient's probabilistic forecasts deliver the goods. Our season-ahead predictions aren't just for planning epic ski days – they're helping companies:

• Optimize winter energy trading positions
• De-risk agricultural futures
• Plan seasonal logistics and operations [example]
• Make data-driven decisions months in advance [example; example]

‍Drop us a line to explore how our forecasts can integrate with your models and deliver ROI that would make even a ski bum's eyes pop.